As the Belmont Stakes returns to Saratoga Race Course for its second consecutive year, the buzz is already building. On June 7, 2025, a shortened 1 ¼-mile version of the storied race will close out the U.S. Triple Crown series—and bettors are already tracking which horses are gaining steam in the odds market.
Unlike some years where one horse dominates the headlines, this year’s Belmont is a wide-open affair. We’ve got proven champions, talented up-and-comers, and a few potential spoilers lurking in the background. But make no mistake—this race is shaping up to be a tactical battle, and the odds are shifting in real time.
If you’re trying to get ahead of the movement, here’s where smart bettors are focusing their attention.
Journalism: The Closer Who Keeps Coming
If there’s one horse who’s caught the eye of oddsmakers in recent weeks, it’s Journalism. After a tough trip in the Kentucky Derby—where he finished second to Sovereignty—he bounced back with a gutsy win in the Preakness. His late burst through a tight window in the stretch showed tenacity you just can’t teach.
Journalism’s pedigree and resume make him a top contender. With five wins in his last six starts, including Grade 1 victories like the Santa Anita Derby, he’s earned his spot among the favorites.
And let’s not forget: this race is being run at Saratoga again. That shorter 1 ¼-mile distance plays right into Journalism’s ability to break late and close hard. His odds have hovered near +180, which is tight—but given his form, many bettors see value even at that number.
If you’re checking the latest lines or locking in early picks, you’ll want to scan the updated Belmont Stakes odds to see how horses like Journalism are trending. Monitoring line movement in the days before race time is a smart way to spot value before it disappears.
Sovereignty: Rested and Ready for a Statement
Sovereignty shocked no one with his win in the Kentucky Derby, where he pulled off a late rally through a messy track. He skipped the Preakness by design, giving him five weeks of rest heading into Belmont. That’s a calculated move by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who clearly has his eyes set on this race.
Despite sitting out the Preakness, Sovereignty hasn’t slipped far in the odds. In fact, some sharp bettors are leaning in his direction because of that break. With a proven ability to close and a strong effort over 1 ¼ miles already under his belt, he’s one of the most reliable options heading into Saratoga.
The key with Sovereignty is watching how he trains in the days leading up. If he shows the same late power he displayed in the Street Sense Stakes and Fountain of Youth, expect his odds to tighten. He’s the kind of horse that doesn’t need early speed—just a clean trip and some daylight in the stretch.
Baeza: The Sleeper Pick Gaining Ground
Every Belmont Stakes has that one horse the odds market starts warming up to—and this year, Baeza is it. After a strong showing in the Kentucky Derby (third place after breaking from the 19th post) and a near-miss second in the Santa Anita Derby, bettors are starting to buy in.
What makes Baeza intriguing isn’t just his form—it’s his bloodline. He’s a half-brother to Mage (2023 Derby winner) and Dornoch (2024 Belmont winner), which gives him a serious pedigree advantage. He’s trained by John Shirreffs, who knows a thing or two about developing late bloomers, and he’ll be fresh after five weeks of rest.
Expect his opening odds to fall somewhere in the 6-1 or 8-1 range. If the public piles on Sovereignty and Journalism, Baeza could sneak into a sweet spot for value bettors looking to go beyond the obvious.
Mid-Tier Contenders to Watch
Beyond the top three, there’s a middle tier of horses who have the talent—but need the right setup to make noise. Here are the some worth monitoring:
- Rodriguez – Missed the Derby due to a foot bruise but comes in off a strong win in the Wood Memorial. Likely to be the early pace-setter at Saratoga. If the field backs off early, he could take advantage,
- Hill Road – Solid but not flashy. Ran third in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and won the Peter Pan Stakes. Could be a useful piece in exotic bets like exactas or trifectas,
- Heart of Honor – Ran fifth in the Preakness after a messy start in his U.S. debut. He’s overdue to improve on that showing and might be overlooked in the betting pool.
These horses probably won’t lead the boards, but they’re perfect for rounding out deeper betting strategies—especially in boxed tickets or superfectas.
Wildcards and Bubble Entries
There’s also chatter around a few names that haven’t yet been confirmed, but could shake things up if they enter:
- Crudo – Back-to-back blowout wins, though untested in graded company. If he makes the field, expect bettors to keep a close eye on morning workouts,
- Grande – Was scratched from the Derby due to a minor issue. His late pace in the Wood Memorial was encouraging, and he has the stamina to go long.
Neither Crudo nor Grande will open as favorites—but if either enters, expect some quiet movement in the odds as bettors look for longshots with upside.
The Saratoga Factor
It’s worth repeating: this is not the traditional Belmont Park setup. The 2025 Belmont Stakes will be run at Saratoga Race Course, just like last year, due to ongoing renovations. That shift changes the way the race plays out.
Saratoga’s layout favors tactical speed more than the deep-closing grind you see at 1 ½ miles. That slightly shorter distance means early positioning matters more. Horses who can stalk just off the lead—and have a kick left in the stretch—tend to thrive here.
What the Odds Are Really Telling You
The odds market isn’t just a prediction engine—it’s a reflection of perception. Line movement shows where the money is going, which often points to which horses are training well, getting buzz in the barns, or picking up favorable post positions.
But it’s not a cheat code. Value often comes from looking past the headlines and identifying horses who are improving at the right time. Bettors who recognized Arcangelo’s momentum in 2023—or Dornoch’s underrated form in 2024—were rewarded.
This year, the board may be tight at the top, but it’s not locked. Watch how Baeza’s number moves. Track where the smart money lands on Sovereignty after his layoff. And don’t sleep on the exotics—this race has upset potential written all over it.