In the UK, it’s the Grand National. For those Down Under, it’s the Melbourne Cup. And for the French, it is the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. These are the races “that stop the nation”, bringing in experienced punters, casual racing fans, and those who don’t usually hold much truck with horse racing. America’s answer is, of course, the Kentucky Derby. It’s the oldest continuously held annual sports event in the country, and it celebrates its 150th event on Saturday 4th May.
Like all the world’s great horse races, the Kentucky Derby is normally a fairly open contest. Sure, a red-hot favourite can pop up now and again, as might happen at Aintree or Longchamps, but most years you are looking at a field of up to 20 horses, with each holding a fair chance. Qualification – known as the Road to the Kentucky Derby – is incredibly fierce, and there is a sense that every runner in the race has earned the right to be there.
2024 Kentucky Derby in Focus
The 2024 renewal is shaping up to be a classic, at least on paper. You can check the latest Kentucky Derby odds and betting guides for a full breakdown of how to approach the big race, but it’s enough to say that we have at least a half a dozen runners with serious chances and several more for whom winning would not be a major surprise. The current market leaders include:
Fierceness: A 2YO champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner.
Sierra Leone: The points leader in the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Forever Young: A Japanese star who broke records in the Middle East.
Catching Freedom: A Louisianna Derby winner trained by Brad Cox.
Stronghold: The 2024 Santa Anita Derby winner.
While, notionally, it’s most likely to see the race winner coming from the quintet above, it would not be a shock to see a winner emerge from elsewhere. The Kentucky Derby has thrown up its fair share of longshot winners over the years, including the 80/1 shot Rich Strike, who won in 2022. Names like Honor Marie, T O Password (another Japanese starto watch out for), and Common Defense may trouble the sportsbooks with long odds this year.
One of the problems with picking a Kentucky Derby winner, however, is that there can be an overload of trends and indicators. In a way, we can have too much information. To explain, consider that 9 Kentucky Derby winners have won the Santa Anita Derby in the same season, making a strong case for Stronghold. Yet, we also note that 15 Florida Derby winners have won the Kentucky Derby a month or so afterwards, hinting that Fierceness is the one destined for greatness.
The point, as such, is that similar claims can be made all throughout the card, so astute bettors need to be looking at other factors, too. Everything from the trainer’s form to the gate number on Derby day can influence the horse’s performance. There are unknowns, too, for sure. One of the horses mentioned above, Forever Young, has never run in the United States, so who knows what could happen when he takes to the track at Churchill Downs for the first time.
Research will win the day
It’s worth remembering that bettors do not need to focus on the race winner only. Betting on a place (finishing in the top 3 with most bookmakers) or an each-way bet can be just as valuable (if not more so) than picking the race winner outright. There are also exotics (betting on the finishing order), and many bookies will offer Kentucky Derby special bets for the big day. Do your research beforehand, and don’t pick blindly, and you will be ahead of the other casual fans who simply bet based on a name they like. That said, there is no guarantee of success for any horse in one of the most keenly contested events in the business of global horse racing.
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