It is all eyes on the Curragh on June 30th for the 2024 Irish Derby. The leading three-year-olds will fight it out in the Group 1 contest, one of Ireland’s biggest races, and one that has been going since 1866.
Open to both fillies and colts at a distance of 1 mile and 4 furlongs, the fixture follows its counterpart, the Epsom Derby, which is typically three to four weeks before the action at the Curragh.
Who is likely to strike gold in this season’s Irish Derby? The ante-post odds at bookmakers at https://www.haworth-village.org.uk/ or other services have been up for a while, painting an early picture of who is expected to get in the frame. Let’s have a look at the main contenders, tips and trends.
Ante-post Favourites
The interest in Aiden O’Brien’s City Of Troy will be fascinating for the Irish Derby after falling a long way short in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in May as the 4/6 FAV. It had been his seasonal reappearance and he faded badly a couple of furlongs from home for the first setback of his career.
His ability to handle the longer distance will be tested, and a slower pace may suit him. City Of Troy is an early 4/6 front-runner. Los Angeles, with a quote of 5/2, is a rising star for O’Brien, winning three from three, including a notable score in May’s Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown.
Ancient Wisdom had a good outing at York in mid-May’s Dante Stakes at a distance of 1m 2 1/2 furlongs. Race favourite Ancient Wisdom finished a distant second by six furlongs, but showed a nice bit of grit with a late rally. The step-up in distance should suit him.
Agenda is another of Aiden O’Brien’s contenders of note. He has had two runs as a three-year-old, taking the runners-up spot in the Chester Vase at this Irish derby distance in early May.
Diego Velazques took on a testing Group 1 challenge in France in mid-month and did a credible job to finish fourth. An unknown quantity at the Derby distance, Diego Velazques is a gutsy performer and has won at the Curragh before.
Illinois is an excellent runner and has undertaken a few trips of further than one mile, which should put him in good stead. Another of Aiden O’Brien’s crop, Illinois was a runner-up in the Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes in May.
Aiden O’Brien is the Irish Derby’s most successful trainer from the last 20 editions, with 12 wins. He’s trained four of the last seven winners and he paired up with jockey Ryan Moore last year to score with Auguste Rodin.
The only other trainer in the last twenty renewals to win more than once is Dermot Weld who has scored twice from twelve entries. Weld has two early entries for this year’s Irish derby, Duraji and the stronger-looking Spoken Truth.
2023-winning jockey Ryan Moore hasn’t had the greatest fortune in the Irish Derby, breaking his duck last year on Auguste Rodin at the eleventh attempt. Moore did place in six of his other ten attempts.
Seamie Heffernan tops the charts as the most successful jockey in the last 20 renewals, scoring four times, most recently on Santiago in 2020. William Buick is the only other jockey to have scored twice in the last two decades.
Ten of the last twenty Irish Derby races have been won by the favourite, indicating that it is worth looking towards the head of the market. Three of the last four editions have been won by the favourite, as have six of the last ten. The longest-priced winner in the last decade was Sovereign, a huge 33/1 outsider in 2019.
Each of the last twenty Irish Derby contests have been won by a horse that was within the first six of the market and, up until their win at the Curragh, had not won at longer than a 13/2 SP.
A nice sweet spot is between 4-8 career starts and between 1-3 for the season, as it’s a tough race to enter for a season renewal. A low draw is also favourable from 1-5 as four of the last winners have come from that range.
Look for runners going to the Curragh after having had a spin at Epsom last time out, and try your luck at online betting NZ. More winners of the Irish Derby ran at Epsom the last time out (14) than any other course, including Curragh itself.
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